In a surprising turn of events, a new opinion poll released by DemosAU has revealed that the Victorian Labor Party is trailing behind both the Coalition and the populist One Nation party. The poll, which surveyed 1,562 respondents and yielded an effective sample of 818, found Labor’s primary vote at a record low of 18%, down seven points from September. One Nation sits at 21%, while the Coalition holds 33%.
Labor’s decline has sparked concern and scepticism within the party’s caucus. Several MPs approached Guardian Australia, expressing doubts about the party’s strategy and the implications of the poll for the upcoming state election on November 28. The mood among Labor members is one of alarm, as the party’s traditional base appears vulnerable to a shift toward One Nation.
According to DemosAU’s head of research, George Hasanakos, the poll’s results could reshape the electoral landscape. He warned that if the numbers hold on election night, many contests would pit the Liberals or Nationals against One Nation, potentially leading to a “clear Coalition majority.” He added that One Nation would need to perform exceptionally well to overcome the preference flows from Labor and the Greens, which are expected to favor the Liberals.
The Greens, meanwhile, have seen a modest improvement, with their primary vote rising to 17%—a three‑point increase since September. This shift suggests that while Labor is losing ground, the Greens are gaining traction, further complicating the two‑party preferred dynamics.
Victorian Premier Ben Carroll has remained tight‑lipped about the poll’s implications. During a press conference in South Melbourne, he declined to comment on whether the figures worried him. Instead, he reiterated his focus on “fighting for working people” and emphasized that his government is “on your side.” Carroll’s remarks were met with mixed reactions, as some observers felt he was sidestepping the pressing questions raised by the poll.
Election officials have outlined that the Victorian Electoral Commission will conduct a two‑candidate‑preferred (2CP) count on election night, determining the final outcome after preferences are distributed. The commission will use indicative 2CP figures based on polling, preference flow analysis, and past results, but will not release these before the election to avoid influencing voter behaviour.
Hasanakos defended the poll’s methodology, noting that he had “double, triple, quadruple checked” the results. He highlighted the poll’s margin of error—3.4%—and the larger sample size as reasons for its reliability. The research team’s rigorous approach aims to provide a clear picture of the electorate’s current mood.
As the election approaches, the political climate in Victoria is tense. Labor’s internal doubts, the rise of One Nation, and the Greens’ gains all point to a potentially unpredictable outcome. The coming weeks will test the parties’ ability to rally their supporters and address the concerns that have surfaced in the wake of this unsettling poll.
Source: The Guardian World
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Editorial note: This is an original news report prepared from the attributed source material with AI assistance. It is not a reproduction or translation of the original article.
