The 11‑member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will gather in Manila from November 15 to 17 for its annual summit, a key forum for addressing the region’s growing economic and security challenges. The meeting will feature heads of state from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, and East Timor, as well as the United States, where President Donald Trump is expected to attend.
Energy Shortages Drive the Agenda
All of the bloc’s economies are feeling the pinch of dwindling oil supplies, a fallout from the US‑Israel war in Iran and the broader US‑China rivalry. The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia are among the most vulnerable, with Manila declaring a national energy emergency in March. Millions of ASEAN citizens working in the Middle East also face uncertainty as the conflict threatens their safety and income.
South China Sea Disputes Remain Unresolved
Maritime tensions continue to dominate the summit’s discussions. The Strait of Malacca, a vital shipping lane between Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, could become a flashpoint if the conflict spreads. China, along with Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, has been involved in long‑standing territorial standoffs in the area, which is believed to hold significant undersea oil and gas deposits.
In 2005, ASEAN began negotiating a “code of conduct” with China to curb aggression. Although the two sides agreed in 2023 to accelerate the process and release a draft this year, analysts warn that a final agreement may not materialize at this summit, potentially extending talks into the next year.
Trade Pressures from the US Tariff War
Since the start of President Trump’s second term, ASEAN members have faced 10‑12.5% tariff hikes on their exports. In response, the bloc is seeking to diversify trade partnerships, a strategy that will likely be a topic of discussion during the Manila meeting.
Regional Security Concerns
Late last year, armed clashes erupted between two ASEAN members along an 800‑km contested border, and disputes over religious sites such as the Preah Vihear temple added to the region’s instability. These incidents underscore the urgency of diplomatic solutions.
As the summit unfolds, ASEAN leaders will aim to balance economic resilience with maritime security, while also navigating the complex dynamics of US‑China competition and regional energy shortages.
Source: Al Jazeera
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